At the beginning of this year, Lincoln, my 7-year-old, told me he wanted to be an author. A few months later, he became fascinated with engineering after watching videos from Mark Rober on YouTube. Then recently he watched the launch of NASA’s Artemis II mission, and now he is thinking aerospace engineering might be the path.
Watching that rocket lift off had an impact on him. It had an impact on me too.
The astronauts on Artemis II have now traveled farther away from Earth than any humans in history, flying around the moon and venturing well beyond the protective magnetic field of our planet. It is the first crewed return to deep space since the Apollo era, and it is remarkable to watch the United States leading that effort again.
Many of the NASA engineers interviewed during the mission said something interesting. They were first inspired as children watching the Apollo launches decades ago. Seeing rockets leave Earth sparked something in them that shaped their entire lives. Kids watching today may very well be the next generation of engineers, inventors, scientists, and explorers.
Watching Lincoln get excited about rockets reminded me of my own childhood.
My brother Travis and I are four years apart, and when we were kids, we shared a bedroom. On the wall, we had photographs of astronauts sitting in those big space chairs. I remember staring at those pictures and thinking I absolutely wanted to be an astronaut someday.
Travis said he was probably going to go into business.
Life has a funny way of changing directions.
Today, Travis works as an engineer helping send satellites across the solar system, and I ended up going into business. Somewhere along the way, we both changed paths.
Recently, NOAA and NASA launched the Space Weather Follow On L1 satellite as part of a mission that deployed three satellites with a single rocket launch. After launch, the satellites separated and traveled toward different destinations in space. This mission was particularly meaningful to me because Travis played a leadership role with the team deploying it to L1.
He led the engineering team responsible for writing the software that guides SWFO through space. That satellite traveled nearly one million miles from Earth over about ninety days before arriving at Lagrange Point One, a gravitational balance point between the Earth and the Sun.
Getting there requires extraordinary precision. The spacecraft does not simply fly straight to its destination. It makes a series of small adjustments along the way. The software Travis and his team built calculates those corrections, so the satellite arrives exactly where it needs to be.
Watching the complexity of what he does has given me some perspective. As technical as I sometimes think the investment business can be, it is fairly clear that Travis is playing chess while I am playing checkers.
From that vantage point, about a million miles away, the satellite constantly watches the Sun. Its job is to detect solar storms that could impact satellites, GPS, and power grids here on Earth. Furthermore, just like we check the weather before going on vacation, these weather satellites clear the path for missions like Artemis II.
This idea of checking the weather and focusing on preparedness goes well with investing.
For decades, portfolios have been built using Modern Portfolio Theory, developed in 1964 by Harry Markowitz. It uses diversification and probabilities to construct what is considered an efficient portfolio.
The problem is simple. It is built on averages.
It assumes that if something works most of the time, it should work for you.
But we do not live in “most of the time.” We live in real time.
This is where we take a different approach, check the weather, and get prepared.
Asset Dedication is not about optimizing probabilities. It is about aligning money with purpose.
Cash for near-term needs
Fixed investments for known obligations
Growth assets for long-term wealth
Instead of asking what should work, we focus on what must work.
Like a spacecraft adjusting along its path, a properly structured portfolio is designed to meet real-world needs without relying on a single predicted outcome. There is a lot of noise in the financial media right now - predictions, headlines, opinions. Our job is not to chase those. It is to stay disciplined and aligned with our plan.
In the fall of 2019, Travis was diagnosed with a pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor with liver metastases (or pancreatic neuroendocrine cancer). If you look at the statistics, the probability of surviving six years with those diagnoses is very low. But probabilities do not define the individual.
Travis continues to live with the same curiosity and determination that helped guide a satellite across a million miles of space. He is a great uncle to my two boys, and the childhood we shared shaped me in more ways than I could ever describe.
Sometimes, the most important lessons in life and in investing are the same.
Probabilities may describe the crowd.
But they do not define your outcome.
Thank you, as always, for the trust you place in our firm.
Stay curious,
Ryan